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Double for the match?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 28 January 2009, at 1:08 a.m.

In Response To: Double for the match? (Rich Munitz)

I too like the analysis but I disagree with a few of the assumptions and they all go against cubing. As Stick pointed out I also see the gammons danger as being lower. A couple more small things are based on the following:

"I'll assume that the chance of blue winning after failing to hit either shot is about the same as the chance of white winning after getting hit, so ignore these scenarios. Since either you hold the cube, or your opponent holds a dead cube, your winning chances will be 59% whether you double or not."

If you don't cube now you still have the very small chance to win after not hitting but you can cash later if the gammon is not likely. So not cubing turns your 96% or so game into something better.

It is another small difference but I see blue's chance of losing after hitting as being larger than the chance of winning without hitting. He is down 7 crossovers vs. a speed board.

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