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John - comments on the rollouts?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 28 January 2009, at 5:36 a.m.

In Response To: John - comments on the rollouts? (Tad Bright)

My OTB estimates for takepoints and gammon prices are based on Snowie's MET while the RO (I believe) used G11. Also, my OTB estimates are not 100% accurate. I think it's a clear D/T if you use Snowie's MET.

My OTB estimates were more than a little bit off when I figured the trailer's takepoint assuming he always redoubles before his next shake. Using my estimate of 8% gammon wins for the trailer, my estimate was that the trailer needed about 34.5% to take while Snowie's actual figures put the takepoint around 31%. Since automatically recubing is not at all the correct strategy for the trailer, his true takepoint is probably 2-3% less than these figures.

The RO shows that the leader is within 2-3% of the trailer's takepoint and has around 14/36 big market losers, so D/T certainly looks right to me.

Once and a while my OTB takepoint and gammon price estimates are off and I make a mistake. This looks like one of those times.

Messages In This Thread

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    sal pittelli -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 9:07 p.m.
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    Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 9:31 p.m.
  • MCG vs. Neil Cube action?
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 10:08 p.m.
  • MCG vs. Neil Cube action?
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 10:26 p.m.
    • MCG vs. Neil Cube action?
      Tad Bright -- Tuesday, 27 January 2009, at 12:50 a.m.
    • John - comments on the rollouts?
      Tad Bright -- Tuesday, 27 January 2009, at 6:35 p.m.
      • John - comments on the rollouts?
        John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 28 January 2009, at 5:36 a.m.
  • MCG vs. Neil Cube action?
    phlegethos -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 11:46 p.m.
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    Keene -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 3:34 p.m.
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    Martin -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 4:26 p.m.
  • My thoughts OTB
    neilkaz -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 8:55 p.m.
    • My thoughts OTB
      Rich Munitz -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 9:09 p.m.
  • OTB thoughts
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 9:33 p.m.
  • MCG vs. Neil Cube action ROLLOUT
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 27 January 2009, at 10:47 a.m.
    • MCG vs. Neil Cube action ROLLOUT
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 27 January 2009, at 4:32 p.m.
      • MCG vs. Neil Cube action ROLLOUT
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 27 January 2009, at 10:19 p.m.
        • MCG vs. Neil Cube action ROLLOUT
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 28 January 2009, at 1:11 a.m.
          • MCG vs. Neil Cube action ROLLOUT
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 28 January 2009, at 1:28 a.m.
  • MCG vs. Neil Cube action Money RO
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 28 January 2009, at 4:47 a.m.