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Double for the match?

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 28 January 2009, at 8:11 p.m.

In Response To: Double for the match? (Stick)

Looks like you are quite correct on the Gs for white. I also failed to consider that white will almost never take of a checker on his first roll.

So reality seems to be closer to 2% gammons. That alone makes the decision TCTC, at which point the factors in Koca's post that seemed rather irrelevant loom large and appear to tip the balance toward No Redouble.

And probably assuming 33% gammons for blue when hitting was a bit conservative as well. It seemed close and made the math easy, but the reality is probably just a bit higher there as well.

Anyway, it is well and nice to be able to do such analysis with the benefit of infinite time, calculators and the like, but much harder over the board. I suspect over the board, it would have been harder to see the full amount of blue's wins and easier to see all the gammons. My initial gut feel on this was to not double.

In the end we are not talking about any monster errors here. It is useful to understand how to analyze positions like this, even if by approximation. Rough analysis helps to avoid monster errors, even if it doesn't always get the answer right.

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