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Working Out Probability of Winning Match Games

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Friday, 30 January 2009, at 2:30 p.m.

In Response To: Working Out Probability of Winning Match Games (Carly Robson)

Am I missing something here? Just tabulate win/loss rates for each different match length.

Note that if you keep detailed scoresheets for every match, you can increase the amount of data you have. For example, if you are playing a 9 point match and reach a score of 2-2, then what remains is effectively a 7 point match. So you can add the results of that match fragment to your 7 point match stats in addition to using the entire match for your 9 pt match stats. Using that approach, you could really produce stats for your performance over time from any match score - it need not be even (e.g. how do you perform at 3-away 5-away).

I don't know if GNU can maintain player stats like Snowie does, but with Snowie, you could enter all of these matches in from your scoresheets (simply resigning each game for the proper number of points), analyze the matches (which will produce bogus error rates), and then add it to the stats. It will then tell you your performance from any match score as described above.

IMHO, this is an exercise in futility. Spend your time playing matches online, judge your improvement from your rating and analyze your play.

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