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Working Out Probability of Winning Match Games

Posted By: Gregg Cattanach
Date: Friday, 30 January 2009, at 2:36 p.m.

In Response To: Working Out Probability of Winning Match Games (Carly Robson)

Just sort your data by match length and get subtotals for wins and losses for each match length. You probably will need to accumulate a very large sample to see some real trends. If you are generally better than your opponents you'd expect to win longer matches more often than short ones, but if your opponents are better than you, on average, the reverse would be true.

My guess is that the relative skill level (which is likely extremely variable regardless of match length) is going to overwhelm any trends based on match length.

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