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52D - 33

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 3 February 2009, at 11:31 a.m.

In Response To: 52D - 33 (Bob Koca)

For those of you too lazy to learn the nactation I've been forcing down your throats know the following before continuing.

• A = 8/5(2) 6/3(2)
• B = 24/21(2) 13/10(2)
• C = 24/21(2) 8/5(2)

Nactation Explained

After 52D-33A your opponent's rolls can be broken up into the following categories.

• Great rolls [66 33 11]
• Manageable rolls [65 63 61 44 43 42 22 31]
• Ugh rolls [64 62 55 54 53 52 51 41 32 21]

After 52D-33C your opponent's rolls can be divided into the same groups thusly.

• Great rolls [66 61 52 43 33 11]
• Manageable rolls [65 63 31 22]
• Ugh rolls [64 62 55 54 53 51 44 42 41 32 21]

To do a full analysis we should subdivide this categories (much) further but for a skim analysis this will do. Also, you mentioned you thought 21(2) was part of it and I only included one play, Cross, including that instead of Both also.

What we see on the surface is that after the best play, A, you've subdued your opponent into only 3 great rolls, 14 manageable rolls, and 19 pieces of shit.

After the second best play, C, your opponent now has traded off a fair few of his manageable rolls and has far more great rolls. He keeps the same great rolls as in the first example, the doubles of 66 33 11, but gains all the 7s as more hitters that weren't as strong in the first example, or plain didn't hit like 52. The amount of disgusting rolls remains virtually untouched at 20.

That's all fine & good but is not how I'd come to an answer OtB. To me I see the duplication of my opponent's good rolls after I play A and note that he isn't well situated to prime me in. What is more likely is a checker may remain floating somewhere or he'll be forced to split and if he does so I'll launch into an attack if possible fearing nothing because he has no board yet.

If he does make offensive progress I can split next turn if needed, I'll still have the stronger board and be under no real threat.

After the C play my position feels awkward and unthreatening. I dislike the stacked 6pt immensely and do realize the hitting sevens take the gusto out of my own position. It's not a terrible play, I have anchored up, have zero'ed out the counterpriming opportunities of my opponent almost completely, and can still carry out an attack if the opportunity presents itself, it's just not as good as the other play.

In comparing it to other plays as was done in this thread, 51$-33 playing C is correct in part because the hitters are not as deflating now since it leaves the return shots at the uncovered 5pt. You're also in more fear I believe of being counterprimed in that position than 52D-33?

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• 52D - 33
  Bob Koca -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 12:08 a.m.
  • 52D - 33
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 12:44 a.m.
    • 52D - 33
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 12:59 a.m.
      • 52D - 33
        Rich Munitz -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 1:06 a.m.
        • 52D - 33
          Coolrey -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 9:30 a.m.
      • 52D - 33
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 4:01 a.m.
    • 52D - 33
      Rich Munitz -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 1:04 a.m.
    • 52D - 33
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 6:17 a.m.
      • 52D - 33
        Bob Koca -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 7:03 a.m.
  • 52D - 33
    Stick -- Tuesday, 3 February 2009, at 11:31 a.m.
    • 52D - 33
      David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 3 February 2009, at 6:24 p.m.
      • 52D - 33
        Stick -- Tuesday, 3 February 2009, at 8:35 p.m.