OTB and rollout

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OTB and rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Saturday, 7 February 2009, at 5:44 p.m.

In Response To: The road to BK winds past many simple positions (neilkaz)

OTB my thoughts about hitting him loose were too quickly passed over since I felt I was ahead enough to win the game anyhow if not hit. I do know that my GV here is almost 1, and that alone should have caused me to stop and think a bit. This game is not gin if I don't hit now. I can be hit by 4 numbers, get hit later sometimes, or once in a while lose the race. Since I can survive if I get hit back from the roof and enter immediately, a bit of analysis should lead me to find out that I should hit at this score.
OTB I played safe and choose the worst play 14/5 missing the fact that if I play 14/11 9/3 all those small rolls that don't get me home, point on him. However it really should have been clear to me to HIT !
A poor effort on my part. We do play quite quickly at SHG (thank God) and I was getting chatted at the time, but I am supposed to be better than this playing quickly and know enough to not open chat windows while thinking.
The score (after 5 games) is: SHARK 4, neilkaz 3 (match to 7 points)
Move number 35: neilkaz to play 63

Pip counts: SHARK 88, neilkaz 75
Position ID: 3uYsABCzeyMIAA Match ID: QQnvAEAAGAAA

• neilkaz moves 14/5

Alert: very bad move ( -0.105)

# Ply Move Equity

1 R 9/3 5/2* +0.7565

0.8064 0.1129 0.0046 - 0.1936 0.0269 0.0011 +0.8169 +0.7565

0.0006 0.0013 0.0007 - 0.0006 0.0016 0.0003 0.0026 0.0027

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2497 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 816228224 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2 R 14/8 5/2* +0.7426 ( -0.0139)

0.8035 0.1137 0.0044 - 0.1965 0.0495 0.0023 +0.7945 +0.7426

0.0006 0.0013 0.0007 - 0.0006 0.0017 0.0003 0.0024 0.0026

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2498 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 816228224 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 14/11 9/3 +0.6840 ( -0.0725)

0.8446 0.0191 0.0005 - 0.1554 0.0018 0.0000 +0.7250 +0.6840

0.0005 0.0006 0.0001 - 0.0005 0.0004 0.0000 0.0011 0.0013

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2498 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 816228224 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

• 4 R 14/5 +0.6512 ( -0.1053)

0.8361 0.0112 0.0007 - 0.1639 0.0023 0.0000 +0.6929 +0.6512

0.0004 0.0004 0.0003 - 0.0004 0.0007 0.0000 0.0009 0.0011

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2498 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 816228224 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5 2 9/3 4/1 +0.6457 ( -0.1108)

0.8295 0.0214 0.0001 - 0.1705 0.0045 0.0001