The double should be clear. There are many more market losers than previously suggested. Of course a loose hit + fan = market loser. What about the rolls that slot the back of the prime and are missed? What about all the doubles that either shift hit or simply run you into an easily won race? What about simply getting another builder to your inner board and White not performing? [last one maybe not a market loser, but sure pushes the double to close to pass range] The way I look at this as White is I'd be verrrrrrry happy if Blue didn't cube, so as Blue here, I cube in a flash. White's take is the unhappy part of this equation. He is only 5 pips behind in the race (+ not on roll) and he has his 5 pt. but his structure is far from perfect. His best chance is to weasel the back guy out, get missed, and try to turn it into a race. Blue may also have problems clearing the defensive bar point esp. when White does weasel away immediately. All that adds up to a solid, albeit unhappy from my point of view, take.
| 130 |                        |
| 125 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube action equity | |||
| Rollout | Money equity: | 0.537 | |
| 0.4% 22.5% 68.9% 31.1% 6.6% 0.4% | |||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.537 ±0.016, - live cube no double: 0.748 ±0.028, - live cube double take: 0.862 ±0.038. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 504 games (equiv. 20623 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, without race database. | |||
| Evaluations | |||
| 1. | Double, take | 0.847 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.785 | (-0.062) |
| 3. | Double, pass | 1.000 | (+0.153) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |||
| Live cube | |||
| 1. | Double, take | 0.862 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.748 | (-0.114) |
| 3. | Double, pass | 1.000 | (+0.138) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |||