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More lessons here than meet the eye

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Monday, 16 February 2009, at 6:46 p.m.

In Response To: More lessons here than meet the eye (Chuck Bower)

The lesson here is that if you take several events, all of which are very likely to happen, the chance that they will all happen is not necessarily very likely.

Seems bad for white (and it is). Blue is very likely to hit. Blue is very likely to pick up both blots after hitting. Blue is very likely to win after picking up both blots. What about doing all of the above? Just likely.

And the 4 times blue misses, he is very likely to get gammoned.

The take is trivial. The double is the question. If blue hits one checker and white enters but does not safety the second checker, has he lost his market? Not clear to me. In practice I'm doubling this as the position is way too likely to be passed by most people, regardless of the correctness of the double.

Messages In This Thread

• More lessons here than meet the eye
  Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 4:15 p.m.
  • More lessons here than meet the eye
    pontiac -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 5:06 p.m.
    • More lessons here than meet the eye
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 5:06 p.m.
      • More lessons here than meet the eye
        pontiac -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 6:02 p.m.
    • More lessons here than meet the eye
      Dan Pelton -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 6:01 p.m.
  • More lessons here than meet the eye
    Martin -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 5:17 p.m.
  • More lessons here than meet the eye
    David Rockwell -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 6:05 p.m.
    • More lessons here than meet the eye
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 6:29 p.m.
    • More lessons here than meet the eye
      DanielP -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 11:32 a.m.
  • More lessons here than meet the eye
    Jason Lee -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 10:30 p.m.
  • More lessons here than meet the eye
    David Rockwell -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 11:04 p.m.
  • More lessons here than meet the eye
    garyo -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 3:39 a.m.
  • More lessons here than meet the eye
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 6:46 p.m.
  • More lessons here than meet the eye
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 7:55 p.m.
    • History
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 5:07 p.m.
      • History
        Stick -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 5:16 p.m.
        • History
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 5:38 p.m.
          • History
            Stick -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 6:07 p.m.
          • History
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 6:23 p.m.
            • History
              MFIC -- Thursday, 19 February 2009, at 1:51 a.m.
              • History
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 19 February 2009, at 2:42 a.m.
              • History
                Stick -- Thursday, 19 February 2009, at 4:38 a.m.
                • History
                  Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 19 February 2009, at 5:15 a.m.
            • History
              neilkaz -- Thursday, 19 February 2009, at 4:47 a.m.
              • History
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 19 February 2009, at 5:08 a.m.
        • History
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 5:44 p.m.
          • History
            Stick -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 6:06 p.m.
      • Hidden lesson
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 5:34 p.m.
        • two (3-ply cube) RO results
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 5:41 p.m.
          • After 64 then dance
            neilkaz -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 8:29 p.m.
        • Hidden lesson
          David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 17 February 2009, at 6:55 p.m.