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NY Doubles Finals Cube #3

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 16 February 2009, at 7:24 p.m.

In Response To: NY Doubles Finals Cube #3 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Largely the same considerations as before. Have we really improved? Is it a take? Play-on? Who the hell knows?

Here we win 74% games and 59% gammons but still D/T.

The score (after 0 games) is: Ray & Petko 0, MCG & CJC 4 (match to 7 points)

Move number 2: MCG & CJC on roll, cube decision?

Ray & Petko	169
MCG & CJC	144
Position ID: yDnmAVBsdwRAJg Match ID: cAngAAAAIAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.9099	(Money: +1.0642)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9842
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0158
3.	No double	+0.9422	-0.0419
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7395 0.5670 0.0658 - 0.2605 0.0452 0.0023 +0.9099 +0.9422 Standard error 0.0011 0.0018 0.0019 - 0.0011 0.0007 0.0002 0.0047 0.0079 Player Ray & Petko owns 2-cube 0.7403 0.5932 0.0936 - 0.2597 0.0480 0.0039 +1.3109 +0.9842 Standard error 0.0014 0.0024 0.0024 - 0.0014 0.0007 0.0004 0.0085 0.0117
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5733 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 817150393 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC		83.844%	(Money: +1.0642)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	84.327%
2.	Double, pass	84.430%	0.103%
3.	No double	84.054%	-0.273%
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7395 0.5670 0.0658 - 0.2605 0.0452 0.0023 83.844% 84.054% Standard error 0.0011 0.0018 0.0019 - 0.0011 0.0007 0.0002 0.030% 0.051% Player Ray & Petko owns 2-cube 0.7403 0.5932 0.0936 - 0.2597 0.0480 0.0039 86.452% 84.327% Standard error 0.0014 0.0024 0.0024 - 0.0014 0.0007 0.0004 0.055% 0.076%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5733 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 817150393 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• NY Doubles Finals Cube #3
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 5:41 a.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #3
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 9:30 a.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #3
    Martin -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 10:15 a.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #3
    Bill Riles -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 2:35 p.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #3
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 4:43 p.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #3
    pontiac -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 4:46 p.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #3
    garyo -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 6:19 a.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #3
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 7:24 p.m.
    • NY Doubles Finals Cube #3
      pontiac -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 8:59 p.m.