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NY Doubles Finals Cube #4 Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 16 February 2009, at 7:34 p.m.

In Response To: NY Doubles Finals Cube #4 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

At this point we are well into ND land, although Stick still keeps trying to convince me that it's a practical play-on, it seems like too much can go right for them to give them something where they will certainly consider taking (e.g., nothing/ace) if they aren't taking now. I think SW is still passing here but SW rollouts are real slow so that will be posted in awhile.

The score (after 1 game) is: Ray-Petko 0, MCG-CJC 4 (match to 7 points)

Move number 23: MCG-CJC on roll, cube decision?

Ray-Petko	189
MCG-CJC	134
Position ID: 4BzzAFi2bQFAJQ Match ID: cAngAAAAIAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6325	(Money: +1.0131)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.6914
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.3086
3.	Double, take	+0.5938	-0.0976
Proper cube action:		No double, take (24.0%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6960 0.4374 0.2257 - 0.3040 0.0393 0.0028 +0.6325 +0.6914 Standard error 0.0021 0.0031 0.0057 - 0.0021 0.0010 0.0005 0.0067 0.0171 Player Ray-Petko owns 2-cube 0.6951 0.4488 0.2949 - 0.3049 0.0396 0.0039 +1.0712 +0.5938 Standard error 0.0029 0.0045 0.0076 - 0.0029 0.0013 0.0009 0.0167 0.0249
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2540 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 817603934 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• NY Doubles Finals Cube #4
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 8:21 p.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #4
    Martin -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 9:10 p.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #4
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 11:32 p.m.
    • NY Doubles Finals Cube #4
      Stick -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 3:18 a.m.
      • NY Doubles Finals Cube #4
        neilkaz -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 3:23 a.m.
        • NY Doubles Finals Cube #4
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 3:24 a.m.
          • NY Doubles Finals Cube #4
            neilkaz -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 3:28 a.m.
            • NY Doubles Finals Cube #4
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 4:56 a.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #4
    garyo -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 5:38 a.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #4 Rollout
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 7:34 p.m.