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NY Doubles Finals Cube #5 Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 16 February 2009, at 7:42 p.m.

In Response To: NY Doubles Finals Cube #5 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

At this point I'm beginning to have my doubts that most players would pass. I definitely believe that this one isn't a practical play-on, though. If we don't hit too much can go right for them, if they aren't taking now, which they very well could be. OTOH ND is so big here that I need to be relatively certain that they'll take, so that adds extra weight to waiting...yeah, I have no idea still. Help me, someone.

After this, we threw 66, they threw 21, and we were a mile away from a cube against anyone even if we were playing on earlier.

The score (after 1 game) is: Ray-Petko 0, MCG-CJC 4 (match to 7 points)

Move number 25: MCG-CJC on roll, cube decision?

Ray-Petko	185
MCG-CJC	127
Position ID: 4JzmADi2bQGEIQ Match ID: cAngAAAAIAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.8814	(Money: +0.9659)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.8404
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1596
3.	Double, take	+0.6438	-0.1965
Proper cube action:		No double, take (55.2%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7135 0.4639 0.1130 - 0.2865 0.0358 0.0021 +0.8814 +0.8404 Standard error 0.0041 0.0058 0.0079 - 0.0041 0.0018 0.0014 0.0140 0.0222 Player Ray-Petko owns 2-cube 0.7000 0.4781 0.3240 - 0.3000 0.0394 0.0068 +1.1229 +0.6438 Standard error 0.0064 0.0083 0.0141 - 0.0064 0.0026 0.0022 0.0332 0.0454
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
464 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 817204104 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC		83.659%	(Money: +0.9659)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	83.392%
2.	Double, pass	84.430%	1.038%
3.	Double, take	82.114%	-1.278%
Proper cube action:		No double, take (55.2%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7135 0.4639 0.1130 - 0.2865 0.0358 0.0021 83.659% 83.392% Standard error 0.0041 0.0058 0.0079 - 0.0041 0.0018 0.0014 0.091% 0.144% Player Ray-Petko owns 2-cube 0.7000 0.4781 0.3240 - 0.3000 0.0394 0.0068 85.229% 82.114% Standard error 0.0064 0.0083 0.0141 - 0.0064 0.0026 0.0022 0.216% 0.295%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
464 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 817204104 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• NY Doubles Finals Cube #5
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 8:22 p.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #5
    Martin -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 9:13 p.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #5
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 15 February 2009, at 11:37 p.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #5
    garyo -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 5:44 a.m.
  • NY Doubles Finals Cube #5 Rollout
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 16 February 2009, at 7:42 p.m.