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NG-OLM Wed. Feb. 18th

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 18 February 2009, at 7:02 p.m.

In Response To: NG-OLM Wed. Feb. 18th (Stick)

I have to believe it is either right to pay later and stay back and leave 3 immediate shots, or pay now and move to within 7 and leave 6 immediate shots. Is it worth 3 more shots to move 3 pips closer?

Lets say white gets to stay put on the 5 point. I count 26 number that leave a direct shot from 10 back vs 16 that leave a direct from 7 back. Difference of 10/36 (28%). Noting that there are 8 numbers that allow white to stay there, right off the bat there are effectively 2+ extra shots left by staying back. If white rolls 41,42,43 (6 rolls) and parks 6 away from our blot 10 back, we are forced to leave a direct 9/36 times. Add another 1.5 shots. Total 3.5+ additional deferred shots by paying later.

Clearly, in all other sequences where white rolls large and doesn't hit we are happy having moved up.

So 15/13 3/2 seems clear to me. I wonder what the correct play is?

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