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OLM Wed. Feb. 18th - Cube

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 18 February 2009, at 10:55 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. Feb. 18th - Cube (Stick)

I see 29 total hits that put 2 on the roof (we might make the 5 point instead on 21), 9 of which make the 3 point, 66 doesn't hit but pretty much wins. And 65 aint too bad a miss either. And if we get hit back we're favored to enter. The big racing deficit is not really so bad due to white's wastage.

What scares the crap out of me is the prospect of doubling, hitting lose, getting hit back and then dancing as this ought to result in an 8 cube back in our face. But we can use all 8 points and we're still about even money here. But how likely is it that we're even money holding an 8 cube? Conservatively figure 3/4 we don't make the 3 point, 1/3 of that we get hit, 1/2 of that we fail to enter = 3/24 = 1/8.

That 1/8 "things go bad" scenario ought to easily wash out with the 1/4 "make the 3 point with 2 on the roof" scenario. And I have to believe that of all the remaining scenarios, if we knew that a turn from now we would not have the 3 point, we might still have it slotted, but we would definitely not be on the bar, we'd not hesitate to double.

So overall I think the double is very clear.

What about the take? Winning chances will range from over 90% if we make the 3 point to even money if we get hit. There are twice as many 90's as 50's and the remaining scenarios which are generally good will be towards the upper end of that range. So I am guessing on average winning chances for blue will be at least 80%. That might make it a take except that blue will win a bunch of gammons here which lose the match. That should push this into pass territory.

Redouble/Pass

The simple analysis. Put yourself in white's position here. Man on the roof, second man under the gun with 13 in the zone, poor home board position, no outfield control and dubious racing lead. Do you want to see the cube here? Gammon costs the match. Are you scooping or scared out of your wits?

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