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OLM Wed. Feb. 18th - Cube

Posted By: Tad Bright
Date: Thursday, 19 February 2009, at 8:54 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. Feb. 18th - Cube (Rich Munitz)

Assumming 80% wins with 20% gammons for us and 20% wins with no gammons for Stick--to keep it simple.
(If I'm understanding the chances in the previous post.)
Drop puts stick at about 14%.
Take at about 10.5% with cube remaining on 4.
Take at about 15% if he turns to 8.

My conclusion: Recube doesn't get much more value than dropping. So double/pass?

MET MET% Chances Equity
8a15acurrent with cube turned to 4
4a15a 0.940 0.600 0.564
0a15a 1.000 0.200 0.200
8a11a 0.650 0.200 0.130
total at 4 cube0.894
6a15adrop.0860
8a15acurrent with cube turned to 4
4a15a 0.940 0.600 0.564
0a15a 1.000 0.200 0.200
8a7a 0.440 0.200 0.088
opp wins valued with 8 cube0.852


Anyone want to help me with the math here?

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