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Riles vs Gordon; Pittsburgh Open Jackpot 3rd Round; Critical Cube Decision

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 23 February 2009, at 4:14 a.m.

In Response To: Riles vs Gordon; Pittsburgh Open Jackpot 3rd Round; Critical Cube Decision (Bill Riles)

Does Green have a take? ATS, the takepoint is 25%. If White rolls a 6 Green's chances are probably around 8%. Another bad sequence is dance-leaves a shot-hits. Call that around 8% as well. These 2 occur around 15/36, so give Green 1.2 wins in these bad sequences. Can he win 7.8 of the remaining 21 games? I would guess Green's EPC is currently around 48 and White's is around 43. Green's on roll, so this makes White just a slight fav. I'd give Green 9.5 of these 21 games for 10.7 wins in 36 games. A little less than 30%. So I think Green should definitely take.

Should White send it over? He's 5% away from an efficient cube but it's a volatile position, so I think he should. 15/36 is a lot of market losers and they lose the market by a lot. D/T looks right to me.

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