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we need a lot more Al Fallers

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 23 February 2009, at 11:30 p.m.

In Response To: we need a lot more Al Fallers (Chuck Bower)

1) It is certainly mathematically possible that Al's result was just him being very lucky against players who were playing at the level of their true current ability. I think there is a plausible theory which is not this case, and I think this plausible theory is the more likely occurence.

I don't know whether everyone played their best game against Al. I don't know what the respective ERs of any of the matches were. I did watch almost all of the LC final between Al and Stick and didn't see much of Stick's play that I disagreed with, but again maybe under/overplaying the opponent comes into play.

From a Bayesian perspective you could argue, given that someone won the LC, it's more likely that they played better (or their opps played worse) than otherwise randomly. But that's only looking at one tournament...if you were to take all tournaments for the past year or several, the probability that no one who plays badly will get very lucky in a few matches and cash is pretty unlikely.

2) Although changing your strategy and tactics is one ploy, it's not the only one.

Don't know what you mean here, please elaborate.

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