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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: how about a GOL RIP thread?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 27 March 2007, at 7:12 a.m.

In Response To: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: how about a GOL RIP thread? (neilkaz)

I had a sneaking suspicion that you had the cube in mind but figured a redouble to 4 three rolls later wouldn't come up too often (about 17% of the time after 5/4/off, less with other plays?), so I ignored it.

But thinking it over now, I don't think being able to give a takable cube is crucial. Here's why:

If Blue doesn't miss in the next two rolls and gets a third turn (about 17% of the time after 5/off?), Blue's position will be one of these six:

HomeboardD/T MED/P MECorrect Cube Action
10100096.8%84.4%D/P
10010088.8%84.4%D/P
10001079.3%84.4%D/T
01100082.5%84.4%D/T
01010079.3%84.4%D/T
01001072.9%84.4%D/T

If all these possibilities were equally likely, then Blue ought to play 2/1 now, hoping to reach one of the first two positions, since he'd rather double White out for 84.4% match equity than double White in for 72.9%, 79.3%, or 82.5%. But they're not equally likely, and how Blue plays 4-1 decides how likely they are.

First, because of the immediate missing numbers: after 4/off 4/3 Blue misses immediately with 12/36 numbers; after any other play, with 11/36 numbers.

Second, because of the misses on the second roll. After 4/off 2/1, Blue misses most of the times that he rolls consecutive ace-X or three-X or two-X on either roll (excepting doublets); after 4/off 3/2, most of the times that he rolls consecutive three-X or four-X or ace-X on either roll (doublets excepted): but after 5/4, only if he rolls consecutive deuce-Xs or ace-X on either roll. 5/4 leaves a single checker on the five point, and consecutive five-X rolls don't miss.

So (ignoring the minor-something going on with how doublets play) I think the most important thing Blue should think about (after playing 4/off) is: don't miss!. And 5/4/off is the play that misses the least -- it's probably also the play most likely to lead to a 011000 position, and 82% D/T match equity ain't bad!.

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