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I Found This Most Interesting/Surprising -- OTB

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 26 February 2009, at 1:55 a.m.

In Response To: I Found This Most Interesting/Surprising -- OTB (Bill Riles)

By far the greater danger is losing the race here. If you clear, you expect to lead by only 1 pip after the opp's average roll of an ace and have a huge stack on the 6 pt and gapped 5 and 1 pts. I doubt White can be over 65% by playing "safe". If White hits, its true that he may get hit later or still lose the race, but the pips gained when Green dances or gets stuck back on the ace and/or rehit should make White a large favorite in the race and game..ie about a 75% fav.

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