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I Found This Most Interesting/Surprising

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Thursday, 26 February 2009, at 3:48 a.m.

In Response To: I Found This Most Interesting/Surprising (Bill Riles)

6/5*/2 is very clear.

Lets say that green reenters immediately. The loss in the race from the hit is 5 pips. In a close race, 5 pips is probably worth around 10% winning chances.

If green enters on the 5 point, it is clear the hit was worth the risk. What if green enters on the 1 point? There are 8 shot numbers. Say 3 of them get hit. Green is hitting 8% from the parlay. But green may crunch his board in the two rolls it took to get there, or fail to leap the 4-prime after the hit. On the other hand, there may be repeaters. So overall, even if we know ahead of time that green will enter on the ace point, it seems that the hit parlay probably washes with the race gain. The big difference then is the huge gain by white when green dances, or gets the shot but misses, or doesn't enter on the ace point at all.

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