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OTB and rollout

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Thursday, 26 February 2009, at 1:50 p.m.

In Response To: OTB and rollout (Sam Pottle)

Good points all, Sam, and funny too. If the two point is where all the action is, then why not slot it?

You will be stripped but you have 13 checkers in the zone. Fan/5=closeout, mission accomplished. This happens 28/90 or about 30%

You break the bar and go all out for the 2 point on fan/no 5. Another 35/90 or 38%.

Nobody rolls 26 from the bar irl, do they? If they do, you have 3 hunters waiting patiently in his home board, and yeah you will get g'd sometimes if he tosses a set... oh well!

You may get one or even two checkers hit playing my way, but in those games he would have gotten to the edge and perhaps hit anyway. I agree it would be better to make the 2 point next but you have a checker stuck down there on the ace point. Eventually you will be making that, why not now?

Respond to the fire, and put it out. Making the ace point douses that potential flame, slotting the 2 point is akin to removing the fuel in front of the fire. Indirect firefighting does this. When you cover the two point with my play there is nothing left to burn, except your opponents ASS when you send over that well timed 4 cube.

With two places to come in, your opponent is playing 55% of the games next turn. Only 30% of the time will he have a chance if you make the ace and slot.

When he does enter immediately, he only moves with a subsequent 6 which as we all know is not growing on a tree nearby. Double aces will expose another (!) blot. Having achieved his six, he has to run the gauntlet of 3 checkers. Rollouts seem to suggest I am wrong on this, but I strongly disagree with the bots... and don't completely trust them here.

I fed this position to Snowie as I wrote this. My play wins more games, but loses more gammons. Net result negative .029

Wrong takes and wrong passes will happen on 4 cubes. I guarantee it. Maybe not with these two competitors though... That poetential is enough to offset an error of this size at a typical ABT event, imho. I need to look at Gnu 3 ply also. But you get the picture.

Messages In This Thread

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  neilkaz -- Sunday, 22 February 2009, at 3:31 a.m.
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    David Rockwell -- Sunday, 22 February 2009, at 4:20 a.m.
  • Endgame containment double ducks
    Martin -- Sunday, 22 February 2009, at 7:01 a.m.
  • Endgame containment double ducks
    aoleg1 -- Sunday, 22 February 2009, at 1:27 p.m.
  • Endgame containment double ducks
    Frank Berger -- Sunday, 22 February 2009, at 3:06 p.m.
  • Endgame containment double ducks
    MandM1951 -- Sunday, 22 February 2009, at 3:50 p.m.
  • Endgame containment double ducks
    Coolrey -- Monday, 23 February 2009, at 9:29 a.m.
  • OTB and rollout
    neilkaz -- Monday, 23 February 2009, at 4:40 p.m.
    • OTB and rollout
      Coolrey -- Wednesday, 25 February 2009, at 1:47 a.m.
      • OTB and rollout
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 25 February 2009, at 1:55 a.m.
      • OTB and rollout
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 25 February 2009, at 2:00 a.m.
        • OTB and rollout
          Coolrey -- Wednesday, 25 February 2009, at 7:11 p.m.
          • OTB and rollout
            Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 26 February 2009, at 2:06 a.m.
            • OTB and rollout
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 26 February 2009, at 2:26 a.m.
            • OTB and rollout
              Coolrey -- Thursday, 26 February 2009, at 1:50 p.m.