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Re: Rollout -- who buys @ BK?

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Tuesday, 27 March 2007, at 4:32 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout -- who buys @ BK? (Stick)

I have just run an incomplete 3-ply according to score Snowie 3.2 rollout with strong settings (huge search space, 3-ply cube for the live cube). But even with just this beginning, we're seeing a similar pattern. The regular equity numbers are .010 apart favoring our actual play, but the live cube numbers favor the hit by .093! The difference in wins, so far, is 16.4% for our actual (183 trials) versus 23.1% for the hitting play (144 trials).

What I missed OTB was how big the difference is regarding the wins! I'm going to guess that much of the gain comes about when he flunks (once may be all it takes), then we quickly slap together a counterprime. The rest of the time we're back to our deuce point game, whether he hits anything on his way out of the woods or not; his added gammons (26.2% vs. 7.7%), of course, come from the times that he does.

I have to leave till very late this evening, so I'm not going to leave the comp running due to the "power blinks" we experience frequently out here in the willywags. But if I continue it tomorrow to firm up the numbers a bit, I don't expect the conclusion to change, since the confidence interval is already OK.

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