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OTB and rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 27 February 2009, at 11:22 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action..way behind on the scoreboard (neilkaz)

OTB I felt that I was borderline TG and had noted that Bob had been passing anything looking like it could be a pass, protecting his lead. Thus, if it became a take, I might scare him out anyway. I played on a rolled a wonderful 52 but was still unable to G him. I cashed vs his 3 pt game, when I was just slightly TG (a bit less than 1.02), so that was also a small error.

GNU rollout says that I should cash this by almost .06 but I don't think that from a practical sense my error is that large, but looking at .06 I probably should'a cashed this. I also rated Bob's chance to take this at 0.00%, which also factored into my decision to roll.

The score (after 7 games) is: Bob Glass 9, Neil Kaz 3 (match to 13 points)

Move number 14: Neil Kaz to play 25

Pip counts: Bob Glass 133, Neil Kaz 135
Position ID: lt0GACbYbsEFIA Match ID: cAm1AZAAGAAA

• Neil Kaz moves 24/22* 13/8

Alert: missed double ( -0.0587)! [bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6049	(Money: +0.5943)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.2778	+0.2778
3.	No double	+0.9413	-0.0587
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg   Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7227 0.2201 0.0104 - 0.2773 0.0784 0.0033 +0.6049 +0.9413 Standard error 0.0012 0.0015 0.0003 - 0.0012 0.0011 0.0006 0.0031 0.0062 Player Bob Glass owns 2-cube 0.7311 0.2164 0.0093 - 0.2689 0.0748 0.0092 +1.3276 +1.2778 Standard error 0.0019 0.0023 0.0008 - 0.0019 0.0025 0.0020 0.0104 0.0119
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1302 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814561469 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	24/22* 13/8	+1.1432
			0.8246 0.3337 0.0173 - 0.1754 0.0335 0.0007
	2	0	24/22* 14/9	+0.9549 ( -0.1883)
			0.7220 0.2919 0.0184 - 0.2780 0.0956 0.0035
	3	0	14/12 13/8	+0.9488 ( -0.1944)
			0.7582 0.2244 0.0071 - 0.2418 0.0665 0.0016
	4	0	13/11 13/8	+0.9459 ( -0.1973)
			0.7504 0.2344 0.0077 - 0.2496 0.0705 0.0028
	5	0	24/22* 6/1*	+0.9351 ( -0.2081)
			0.7157 0.2828 0.0128 - 0.2843 0.0941 0.0041

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action..way behind on the scoreboard
  neilkaz -- Friday, 27 February 2009, at 3:44 a.m.
  • Cube action..way behind on the scoreboard
    Rich Munitz -- Friday, 27 February 2009, at 4:24 a.m.
  • Cube action..way behind on the scoreboard
    lenny -- Friday, 27 February 2009, at 5:52 a.m.
  • Cube action..way behind on the scoreboard
    Ade -- Friday, 27 February 2009, at 2:45 p.m.
  • Cube action..way behind on the scoreboard
    jdg -- Friday, 27 February 2009, at 4:03 p.m.
    • Cube action..way behind on the scoreboard
      neilkaz -- Friday, 27 February 2009, at 4:05 p.m.
  • Cube action..way behind on the scoreboard
    Keene -- Friday, 27 February 2009, at 4:45 p.m.
    • Cube action..way behind on the scoreboard
      Rich Munitz -- Friday, 27 February 2009, at 6:59 p.m.
  • Cube action..way behind on the scoreboard
    Coolrey -- Friday, 27 February 2009, at 4:51 p.m.
  • OTB and rollout
    neilkaz -- Friday, 27 February 2009, at 11:22 p.m.