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Rollout and coupons for Whopper combos

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 1 March 2009, at 4:51 p.m.

In Response To: Who's going to BK? Neil ? Snowie? GNU? ..perhaps you? (neilkaz)

So far it looks like only Richard and Snowie are going to BK and they each will need to diet for a month after eating the required megameal. OTB I was quite sure that I had to wait a roll since I hate life here if I don't roll a 6. In reality 6/dance is a decent but not crushing market loss, and unless I toss boxes, I can't lose my market by tons. A 6 followed by the opp entering results in an easy take, but a great time to turn the cube vs any opp ntoing some will wimp and pass. The rollout shows that cubing now is clearly a beaver ! I posted this bcuz I was stunned that Snowie felt my decision to roll was wrong by .160 !! GNU gets the right decision at least. If I crash my board here I am often in bad trouble and I can get another blot hit or am subject to various squeezes off the anchor even though a 3rd checker may still be there.

The score (after 0 games) is: Lions_Gord 0, neilkaz 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 3: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Lions_Gord 144, neilkaz 107
Position ID: mNs2AGDb7AKAAw Match ID: cAngAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.1271	(Money: +0.1219)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.0013
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.0013
3.	Double, take	-0.3368	-0.3355
Proper cube action:		No double, take (25.1%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.4856 0.2563 0.0032 - 0.5144 0.1059 0.0030 +0.1271 -0.0013 Standard error 0.0033 0.0029 0.0005 - 0.0033 0.0028 0.0004 0.0094 0.0201 Player Lions_Gord owns 2-cube 0.4760 0.2576 0.0019 - 0.5240 0.1127 0.0068 +0.2133 -0.3368 Standard error 0.0038 0.0043 0.0006 - 0.0038 0.0031 0.0022 0.0218 0.0316
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
519 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813954140 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: Opp 0, neilkaz 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 7: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Opp 140, neilkaz 99
Position ID: mNs2AELb7IIAAw Match ID: cAngAAAAAAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5651	(Money: +0.5524)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.6991
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.3009
3.	No double	+0.5863	-0.1127
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6134 0.3921 0.0052 - 0.3866 0.0689 0.0029 +0.5651 +0.5863 Standard error 0.0014 0.0021 0.0005 - 0.0014 0.0012 0.0006 0.0046 0.0111 Player Opp owns 2-cube 0.6011 0.3920 0.0039 - 0.3989 0.0731 0.0049 +1.0973 +0.6991 Standard error 0.0018 0.0027 0.0007 - 0.0018 0.0014 0.0012 0.0122 0.0160
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1734 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813933222 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: Opp 0, neilkaz 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 3: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Opp 144, neilkaz 99
Position ID: mNs2AGDb7IIAAw Match ID: cAngAAAAAAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.7892	(Money: +0.7720)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.1480	+0.1480
3.	No double	+0.8794	-0.1206
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6752 0.4705 0.0049 - 0.3248 0.0527 0.0011 +0.7892 +0.8794 Standard error 0.0012 0.0017 0.0002 - 0.0012 0.0009 0.0002 0.0040 0.0089 Player Opp owns 2-cube 0.6533 0.4616 0.0031 - 0.3467 0.0594 0.0030 +1.4967 +1.1480 Standard error 0.0018 0.0025 0.0003 - 0.0018 0.0013 0.0011 0.0118 0.0156
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1598 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813719413 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Who's going to BK? Neil ? Snowie? GNU? ..perhaps you?
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 28 February 2009, at 9:30 p.m.
  • Who's going to BK? Neil ? Snowie? GNU? ..perhaps you?
    Ade -- Saturday, 28 February 2009, at 10:50 p.m.
  • Who's going to BK? Neil ? Snowie? GNU? ..perhaps you?
    Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 28 February 2009, at 11:00 p.m.
  • Who's going to BK? Neil ? Snowie? GNU? ..perhaps you?
    mfic -- Sunday, 1 March 2009, at 12:31 a.m.
    • Who's going to BK? Neil ? Snowie? GNU? ..perhaps you?
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 1 March 2009, at 12:56 a.m.
      • Who's going to BK? Neil ? Snowie? GNU? ..perhaps you?
        happyjuggler0 -- Sunday, 1 March 2009, at 8:41 a.m.
  • Who's going to BK? Neil ? Snowie? GNU? ..perhaps you?
    Dan Pelton -- Sunday, 1 March 2009, at 2:56 a.m.
  • Who's going to BK? Neil ? Snowie? GNU? ..perhaps you?
    happyjuggler0 -- Sunday, 1 March 2009, at 8:45 a.m.
  • Who's going to BK? Neil ? Snowie? GNU? ..perhaps you?
    dc-ohio -- Sunday, 1 March 2009, at 2:00 p.m.
  • Rollout and coupons for Whopper combos
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 1 March 2009, at 4:51 p.m.
    • Short rollout showing how bad it is when my side crashes
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 1 March 2009, at 6:12 p.m.
      • Another rollout showing how bad it is when my side crashes
        neilkaz -- Monday, 2 March 2009, at 12:42 a.m.
    • Rollout and coupons for Whopper combos
      Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 1 March 2009, at 8:48 p.m.