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NG-OLM Mon. March 2nd

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Monday, 2 March 2009, at 6:42 p.m.

In Response To: NG-OLM Mon. March 2nd (Stick)

If we wind up on the bar, how often do we lose? 10% seems very generous. If we hit, we wind up on the bar 14% of the time, figure 16% with repeaters. So it looks like we give up 1.6% wins with the hit. Do we gain more than say 3.5% gammons from the hit? It seems very clear that we do. 11% of the time white dances, and other times enters and we hit again going past. Right off the bat, our chance of rolling an immediate double 4-5-6 followed by another set of doubles in the next two rolls is about 2.5%, with perhaps 2% gammons. We'll certainly come up with 1.5% gammons from all other scenarios.

HIT

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