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Ugly take?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 2:34 a.m.

In Response To: Ugly take? (KenB)

Looks close. 27 hits, 3 of which hit twice and D1 hits all three. You won't lose many gammons if White hits with a 4 but 1s and 2s leave you very vulnerable to a double game. The 20-point buys you lots of gammon insurance but your 3 blots and his strong 4-point board still probably gives White 30% or so net gammons. A gammon with the cube on 2 when both players are 7 or 8 away is worth a little more than normal (I use 56% vs. the normal 50%)so your naive takepoint is around 42%. Recube vig probably lowers this to around 35%.

Are your cubeless chances 35% here? I don't think you can quite get there. D/close pass is my guess.

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