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42P-43

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 10 March 2009, at 3:18 a.m.

In Response To: 42P43 (David Rockwell)

I was hoping someone else would try to tackle this and since MCG showed his slackerness I guess I'll point out the main points, which you likely already know.

GNU is on the fence about what to play after 46k trials but Snowie thinks it clear that splitting is better. There is enough variance left in the SW rollout but I think I may more data that confirms the 5k RO posted on my site. So the biggest argument in favor of playing S instead of D comes from one bot ranking the plays as equal and the other bot having a clear preference for one of the plays.

If we look at the 3rd roll and the immediate choices your opponent will have, or opportunities to make errors, we will quickly see that 42P-43S yields easy decisions on the part of your opponent. What can they really misplay? Perhaps 42P-43S-22? Other than that, even the if your opponent errs, it's likely to be a very small error. By slotting their 5pt you make a decision for them for a large part their rolls ... everyone knows to try to knock you off the 5pt. esp. when they have the better board.

However, 42P-43D-XX? gives a far greater amount of decisions on the immediate sequence than 42P-43S-XX. I won't bother listing all the rolls I think my opponent is capable of misplaying, but there are quite a few. (recommend putting it in GNU and taking a look at the temp. map & quizzing yourself on how you'd play all the rolls and comparing your answers to GNU 2 ply, the ones you 'get wrong' check the margin of error and see if you think a RO would confirm or overturn it, or ask me if I have the rollout already)

So far, 1 nod in favor of S (SW RO), 1 nod in favor of D (immediate decisions where your opponent might err). After that I'm stumped. I don't have a clear favorite but I do know how close the plays are so that in my matches hopefully if this comes up the score will dictate my choice of move. I generally play the autopilot S but have tinkered with D also for money.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• 42P43
  David Rockwell -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 2:18 a.m.
  • 42P43
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 1:10 p.m.
  • 42P-43
    Stick -- Tuesday, 10 March 2009, at 3:18 a.m.
    • 42P-43
      David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 10 March 2009, at 4:08 a.m.
      • 42P-43
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 10 March 2009, at 9:45 a.m.