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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 11 March 2009, at 9:13 a.m.

In Response To: Chicago Point Problem (Stick)

Unfortunately the GNU rollout got *stuck* after ~2k trials so the JSD is just over 2 (not bad). The SW live cube rollout as you can see has plenty of variance that still needs etched out but I'm satisfied at this point and don't want to devote any more CPU time to it.

gnubg	118
user	167
Position ID: uHsGA0CczWAANg Match ID: UYkQAAAAAAAA

1. Rollout 8/4 3/2 Eq.: -0.3715

0.3798 0.0628 0.0027 - 0.6202 0.3181 0.0573 CL -0.5503 CF -0.3715

[0.0024 0.0010 0.0002 - 0.0024 0.0026 0.0018 CL 0.0074 CF 0.0093]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2145 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814782975 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Rollout 23/18 Eq.: -0.4015 ( -0.0300)

0.3468 0.0796 0.0041 - 0.6532 0.2978 0.0322 CL -0.5528 CF -0.4015

[0.0017 0.0010 0.0002 - 0.0017 0.0021 0.0012 CL 0.0048 CF 0.0064]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2145 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814782975 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Chuck Bower (Green) vs. Perry Gartner (White)

Money session. Score Green-White: 0-0

		Pip: 118
		Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 167

#	Ply	Move	Equity
1	R	8/4 3/2	-0.417
		0.4% 6.5% 37.6% 62.4% 31.6% 5.9%
		Live cube rollout: -0.394
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.554 ±0.016, - live cube: -0.394 ±0.021. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1620 games (equiv. 28207 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2	R	23/18	-0.421 (-0.004)
		0.4% 7.8% 35.1% 64.9% 29.5% 3.7%
		Live cube rollout: -0.408
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.549 ±0.012, - live cube: -0.408 ±0.015. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1620 games (equiv. 40524 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

Messages In This Thread

• Chicago Point Problem
  Stick -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 4:39 a.m.
  • Chicago Point Problem
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 9:49 a.m.
  • Chicago Point Problem
    pontiac -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 12:23 p.m.
  • Chicago Point Problem
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 10 March 2009, at 1:17 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Wednesday, 11 March 2009, at 9:13 a.m.
    • Studying my brilliant play?
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 11 March 2009, at 2:42 p.m.