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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 17 March 2009, at 4:26 a.m.

In Response To: Doubler ou ne pas doubler (Stick)

OtB we eventually decided to take a roll. We were both on the fence about it so I'm happy with the rollout result being so close. Noting that all of our doubles played ok and the rolls that don't get by that kind of suck are 51 41 42 we took a shot at it. We were lucky and hit the second checker but we still couldn't get the gammon, which was of course part of the original problem having two points open in our home board, one of which has no prayer of being closed, that even when we do hit the 2nd checker it's not like gammoncentral.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 4, user 3 (match to 7 points)

Move number 3: user on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	111
user	68
Position ID: 7N4QA0DufQaAAA Match ID: cAngAEAAGAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.9545	(Money: +0.9173)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+2.3033	+1.3033
3.	No double	+0.9849	-0.0151
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.8475 0.2289 0.0026 - 0.1525 0.0085 0.0007 +0.9545 +0.9849 Standard error 0.0016 0.0019 0.0005 - 0.0016 0.0005 0.0005 0.0036 0.0071 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.8476 0.2243 0.0116 - 0.1524 0.0081 0.0004 +2.4444 +2.3033 Standard error 0.0021 0.0025 0.0032 - 0.0021 0.0010 0.0001 0.0139 0.0166
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 815591856 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Doubler ou ne pas doubler
  Stick -- Sunday, 15 March 2009, at 10:38 p.m.
  • Doubler ou ne pas doubler
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 15 March 2009, at 11:38 p.m.
  • Doubler ou ne pas doubler
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 16 March 2009, at 1:30 a.m.
    • Doubler ou ne pas doubler
      Rich Munitz -- Monday, 16 March 2009, at 6:43 a.m.
      • Doubler ou ne pas doubler
        Stick -- Monday, 16 March 2009, at 7:20 a.m.
  • Doubler ou ne pas doubler
    Marv Porten -- Monday, 16 March 2009, at 1:30 a.m.
  • Doubler ou ne pas doubler
    Dan Pelton -- Monday, 16 March 2009, at 1:45 a.m.
    • Doubler ou ne pas doubler
      Dan Pelton -- Monday, 16 March 2009, at 3:57 a.m.
  • Doubler ou ne pas doubler
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 16 March 2009, at 4:05 p.m.
    • Doubler ou ne pas doubler
      dc-ohio -- Monday, 16 March 2009, at 5:16 p.m.
    • Doubler ou ne pas doubler
      garyo -- Tuesday, 17 March 2009, at 5:05 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 17 March 2009, at 4:26 a.m.
    • Rollout
      garyo -- Tuesday, 17 March 2009, at 4:50 a.m.