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Re: Re: Re: Closing board here has to be wrong right?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 29 March 2007, at 7:48 p.m.

In Response To: Re: Re: Closing board here has to be wrong right? (DC-Ohio)

Say the position was adjusted slightly (move a spare from the ace or deuce point to the 6 point) ....

Moving a spare from the ace point to the 3 point is sufficient, I think -- this short rollout says it's surely close to being so:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 5 (match to 7 points)

Move number 4: Blue to play 12

White162


 ' '2X2X2X3X ' ' '2X ' '

2O3O3O '3O4O ' ' ' ' ' '

Blue56

Position ID: bDsMAHi7cw8AAA Match ID: cInoAAAAKAAA

• Blue moves 6/4 5/4

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +2.3071(Money: +1.8114)
0.9370 0.8426 0.0948 - 0.0630 0.0001 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +2.1705
2.Double, take +2.2291 +0.0586
3.Double, pass +1.0000 -1.1705
Proper cube action:Too good to double, pass (95.2%)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 6/4 5/4 +2.3778
0.93780.89820.3229-0.06220.00000.0000 +2.3972 +2.3778
0.00290.00480.0227-0.00290.00000.0000 0.0136 0.0177
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
201 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 6/3 +2.3756 ( -0.0022)
0.93970.89370.2571-0.06030.00010.0000 +2.3944 +2.3756
0.00320.00420.0222-0.00320.00000.0000 0.0128 0.0170
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
201 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 6/5 2/off +2.3568 ( -0.0209)
0.93400.88790.3277-0.06600.00000.0000 +2.3724 +2.3568
0.00280.00410.0232-0.00280.00000.0000 0.0117 0.0163
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
201 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 5/3 2/1 +2.3332 ( -0.0445)
0.92920.88030.2745-0.07080.00010.0000 +2.3479 +2.3332
0.00310.00430.0242-0.00310.00000.0000 0.0132 0.0166
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
200 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5 R 3/off +2.3007 ( -0.0771)
0.92590.87500.3163-0.07410.00000.0000 +2.3382 +2.3007
0.00300.00490.0270-0.00300.00000.0000 0.0132 0.0176
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
138 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
6 R 6/5 3/1 +2.2937 ( -0.0840)
0.92450.87420.3078-0.07550.00010.0000 +2.3320 +2.2937
0.00310.00480.0283-0.00310.00000.0000 0.0134 0.0175
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
138 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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