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Re: Re: Re: Closing board here has to be wrong right?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Re: Re: Closing board here has to be wrong right? (DC-Ohio)
Date: Thursday, 29 March 2007, at 7:48 p.m.
Say the position was adjusted slightly (move a spare from the ace or deuce point to the 6 point) ....
Moving a spare from the ace point to the 3 point is sufficient, I think -- this short rollout says it's surely close to being so:
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 5 (match to 7 points)
Move number 4: Blue to play 12
White 162
Blue 56 Position ID: bDsMAHi7cw8AAA Match ID: cInoAAAAKAAA
• Blue moves 6/4 5/4
Cube decision 2-ply cubeless equity +2.3071 (Money: +1.8114) 0.9370 0.8426 0.0948 - 0.0630 0.0001 0.0000 Cubeful equities: 1. No double +2.1705 2. Double, take +2.2291 +0.0586 3. Double, pass +1.0000 -1.1705 Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (95.2%)
# Ply Move Equity • 1 R 6/4 5/4 +2.3778
0.9378 0.8982 0.3229 - 0.0622 0.0000 0.0000 +2.3972 +2.3778 0.0029 0.0048 0.0227 - 0.0029 0.0000 0.0000 0.0136 0.0177 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 201 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 6/3 +2.3756 ( -0.0022)
0.9397 0.8937 0.2571 - 0.0603 0.0001 0.0000 +2.3944 +2.3756 0.0032 0.0042 0.0222 - 0.0032 0.0000 0.0000 0.0128 0.0170 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 201 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 3 R 6/5 2/off +2.3568 ( -0.0209)
0.9340 0.8879 0.3277 - 0.0660 0.0000 0.0000 +2.3724 +2.3568 0.0028 0.0041 0.0232 - 0.0028 0.0000 0.0000 0.0117 0.0163 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 201 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 4 R 5/3 2/1 +2.3332 ( -0.0445)
0.9292 0.8803 0.2745 - 0.0708 0.0001 0.0000 +2.3479 +2.3332 0.0031 0.0043 0.0242 - 0.0031 0.0000 0.0000 0.0132 0.0166 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 200 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 5 R 3/off +2.3007 ( -0.0771)
0.9259 0.8750 0.3163 - 0.0741 0.0000 0.0000 +2.3382 +2.3007 0.0030 0.0049 0.0270 - 0.0030 0.0000 0.0000 0.0132 0.0176 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 138 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 6 R 6/5 3/1 +2.2937 ( -0.0840)
0.9245 0.8742 0.3078 - 0.0755 0.0001 0.0000 +2.3320 +2.2937 0.0031 0.0048 0.0283 - 0.0031 0.0000 0.0000 0.0134 0.0175 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 138 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059161243 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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