Advanced Backgammon part 22B ROLLOUT

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Advanced Backgammon part 22B ROLLOUT

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 19 March 2009, at 4:58 a.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon part 22B (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Position 214:
Everybody got this right, but Robertie felt that 14/6 was second best, and 7/1* 3/1 was the weakest alternative. Is in Bagai. Making the ace activates a half-dead checker and puts White in the air, pushing him forward.
Move number 3: Blue to play 26

White 134

Blue 108
Position ID: tjnBgCE8bjMMAA Match ID: cAkZAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 7/1* 3/1

# Ply Move Equity

• 1 R 7/1* 3/1 +0.5128

0.6393 0.1108 0.0025 - 0.3607 0.0808 0.0028 +0.3085 +0.5128

0.0012 0.0016 0.0006 - 0.0012 0.0013 0.0002 0.0029 0.0072

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1305 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811598238 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2 R 10/4 6/4 +0.4041 ( -0.1088)

0.6167 0.1162 0.0046 - 0.3833 0.1062 0.0031 +0.2448 +0.4041

0.0013 0.0016 0.0003 - 0.0013 0.0015 0.0004 0.0033 0.0077

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1295 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811598238 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 14/6 +0.2765 ( -0.2363)

0.5788 0.1094 0.0044 - 0.4212 0.1020 0.0022 +0.1672 +0.2765

0.0014 0.0016 0.0004 - 0.0014 0.0018 0.0002 0.0034 0.0090

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1295 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811598238 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 215:
Robertie gets this one right, 14/7 is best to clean up & leave a few indirect shots while White is on the bar. Blue will be much closer to bringing the position home if he gets away with it.
Move number 5: Blue to play 34

White 135

Blue 100
Position ID: tjnBgEFzXDMMAA Match ID: QYkRAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 14/7

# Ply Move Equity

• 1 R 14/7 +0.4771

0.7443 0.1194 0.0017 - 0.2557 0.0428 0.0013 +0.5656 +0.4771

0.0007 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0005 0.0001 0.0014 0.0021

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

5329 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812421792 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2 R 10/7 10/6 +0.4386 ( -0.0385)

0.7239 0.1242 0.0014 - 0.2761 0.0428 0.0013 +0.5293 +0.4386

0.0013 0.0017 0.0003 - 0.0013 0.0011 0.0002 0.0030 0.0040

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1295 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812421792 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 8/4 7/4 +0.3776 ( -0.0996)

0.6906 0.1669 0.0023 - 0.3094 0.0596 0.0023 +0.4885 +0.3776

0.0013 0.0017 0.0003 - 0.0013 0.0012 0.0004 0.0032 0.0044

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1295 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812421792 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 216:
Robertie likes to set a trap while the cube is centered, 10(2) 5(2) on the hopes that someone will take based on the shot equity. But the play is also technically best since White can only take if he rolls a big set.
Move number 4: Blue to play 33

White 115

Blue 97
Position ID: tN0mwADmOg8GAA Match ID: cIkNAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 13/10(2) 8/5(2)

# Ply Move Equity

• 1 R 13/10(2) 8/5(2) +0.9864

0.8469 0.0060 0.0001 - 0.1531 0.0030 0.0000 +0.6969 +0.9864

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

30775 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812286745 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2 R 13/10(2) 8/5 4/1 +0.9856 ( -0.0008)

0.8486 0.0060 0.0001 - 0.1514 0.0028 0.0000 +0.7004 +0.9856

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

11906 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812286745 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 13/10(2) 6/3 4/1 +0.9850 ( -0.0014)

0.8531 0.0056 0.0001 - 0.1469 0.0028 0.0000 +0.7092 +0.9850

0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

5053 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812286745 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 216 (variant):
If White owns the cube, the correct play is the safest to not leave a shot with 10(2) 6/3 4/1. This was probably a close but correct cube before the roll.
Move number 6: Blue to play 33

White 115

Blue 97
Position ID: tN0mwADmOg8GAA Match ID: QYkNAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 13/10(2) 6/3 4/1

# Ply Move Equity

• 1 R 13/10(2) 6/3 4/1 +0.7042

0.8697 0.0036 0.0001 - 0.1303 0.0023 0.0001 +0.7407 +0.7042

0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 - 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 0.0005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

8703 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811692981 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2 R 13/10(2) 6/3(2) +0.7006 ( -0.0035)

0.8682 0.0031 0.0000 - 0.1318 0.0022 0.0000 +0.7373 +0.7006

0.0003 0.0002 0.0000 - 0.0003 0.0001 0.0000 0.0006 0.0007

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

4661 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811692981 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 13/10(2) 8/5 6/3 +0.7001 ( -0.0040)

0.8678 0.0040 0.0000 - 0.1322 0.0026 0.0001 +0.7368 +0.7001

0.0003 0.0002 0.0004 - 0.0003 0.0001 0.0000 0.0006 0.0008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

3260 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811692981 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4 R 13/10(2) 8/5 4/1 +0.6993 ( -0.0049)

0.8676 0.0040 0.0001 - 0.1324 0.0026 0.0001 +0.7366 +0.6993

0.0004 0.0002 0.0003 - 0.0004 0.0001 0.0000 0.0008 0.0010

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2314 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811692981 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5 R 13/10(2) 8/5(2) +0.6900 ( -0.0141)

0.8637 0.0048 0.0002 - 0.1363 0.0034 0.0001 +0.7289 +0.6900

0.0005 0.0003 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0002 0.0000 0.0010 0.0013

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1243 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811692981 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	134

Blue	108
Position ID: `tjnBgCE8bjMMAA` Match ID: `cAkZAAAAAAAA`

White	135

Blue	100
Position ID: `tjnBgEFzXDMMAA` Match ID: `QYkRAAAAAAAA`

White	115

Blue	97
Position ID: `tN0mwADmOg8GAA` Match ID: `cIkNAAAAAAAA`

White	115

Blue	97
Position ID: `tN0mwADmOg8GAA` Match ID: `QYkNAAAAAAAA`

Messages In This Thread

Advanced Backgammon part 22B
Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 17 March 2009, at 11:00 p.m.
- Advanced Backgammon part 22B
  neilkaz -- Wednesday, 18 March 2009, at 12:07 a.m.
- Advanced Backgammon part 22B
  Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 18 March 2009, at 1:11 a.m.
  - Opps 216
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 18 March 2009, at 2:00 a.m.
- Advanced Backgammon part 22B
  Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 18 March 2009, at 7:52 a.m.
- Advanced Backgammon part 22B
  Stick -- Wednesday, 18 March 2009, at 2:34 p.m.
- Advanced Backgammon part 22B
  Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 18 March 2009, at 4:49 p.m.
- Robertie's picks
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 18 March 2009, at 6:30 p.m.
  - Robertie's picks
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 18 March 2009, at 7:52 p.m.
- Advanced Backgammon part 22B ROLLOUT
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 19 March 2009, at 4:58 a.m.

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