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DMP 33 v. Ray

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 25 March 2009, at 3:44 p.m.

In Response To: DMP 33 v. Ray (Stick)

If we just play the race we are up 19 pips but have some wastage and we likely win 75-76%. I think we can clearly do better than that by hitting.

If we close the 5 and 3 we get hit 30% of the time and inspite of out 8 pt we often lose those games, IMHO. We can still lose once in a while if he dances. I don't see this play winning more than 75%.

So I am hitting and making the 2 pt for sure! Unless White rolls 53 making the 5 pt looks clearly best. We have 14 shots after this 53 so it likely costs us 4%. Are we 4% better in the game than after making the 3 pt? I think so since we'll leave fly shots with the 5 pt open. What about 13/10(2)? This looks good but will also leave some shots as we come home.

The 5 pt isn't shot proof either but I think 8/2 8/5(2)x is best.

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