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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 27 March 2009, at 5:04 a.m.

In Response To: Has the ship sailed? (Stick)

A huge ND AtS but I often find I'm unable to resist the temptation. I should have resisted playing Ray, he's a taker, but if this was somehow a blanket problem to all of the open field I believe I would be near the 59% drop rate I need. One problem with cubing these sort of positions is trying to guess how big of an error/blunder you're making in cubing. I figured I was making at least a blunder, aside from that I didn't know.

The good part of this that people ignore, don't grasp, w/e, is that even after I make my super blunder and the person correctly takes, so fuckin' what? I'm still 75% w/30% gammons ... it comes back to haunt me 1 time out of 4. I feel these positions which I lump under the category of "huge money passes/AtS bluff cubes" aren't bluffed often enough. Even good players are capable of making blunderiffic cube takes/passes. The last time I played Neil (sorry, I'll out us both) he made a .6 cube blunder very late in the match and earlier in the match he made another cube double blunder which I promptly learned him good by passing and making a .6 blunder myself.

I almost feel like it's related to the poker saying, if you're never caught bluffing then you aren't bluffing enough.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 1, user 5 (match to 11 points)

Move number 5: user on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	152
user	133
Position ID: GztggDSw14NhAA Match ID: UQlgARAAKAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6468	(Money: +0.7483)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.7708
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2292
3.	Double, take	+0.4439	-0.3269
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (58.8%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player user owns 2-cube 0.7453 0.2878 0.0399 - 0.2547 0.0692 0.0008 +0.6468 +0.7708 Standard error 0.0016 0.0029 0.0026 - 0.0016 0.0014 0.0003 0.0047 0.0071 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.7495 0.3006 0.0931 - 0.2505 0.0632 0.0014 +0.9911 +0.4439 Standard error 0.0017 0.0047 0.0049 - 0.0017 0.0013 0.0006 0.0089 0.0127
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1499 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 820888077 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Has the ship sailed?
  Stick -- Thursday, 26 March 2009, at 7:47 a.m.
  • Has the ship sailed?
    Neil Robins -- Thursday, 26 March 2009, at 10:01 a.m.
    • Has the ship sailed?
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 26 March 2009, at 12:34 p.m.
  • Has the ship sailed?
    David -- Thursday, 26 March 2009, at 3:21 p.m.
  • Has the ship sailed?
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 26 March 2009, at 4:34 p.m.
  • Has the ship sailed?
    garyo -- Thursday, 26 March 2009, at 5:03 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 5:04 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 12:52 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 5:30 p.m.
    • Some simple math
      neilkaz -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 2:53 p.m.
      • Some simple math
        Coolrey -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 5:59 p.m.
        • Some MET's are here
          neilkaz -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 6:06 p.m.
          • Thanks Neil, (nm) *NM*
            Coolrey -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 6:12 p.m.
          • Some MET's are here
            Tad Bright -- Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 11:43 p.m.
        • Some simple math
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 6:42 p.m.
          • Some simple math
            Coolrey -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 9:19 p.m.
        • Some simple math
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 9:55 p.m.
          • Some simple math
            Coolrey -- Saturday, 28 March 2009, at 3:45 p.m.
    • Puke
      neilkaz -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 3:09 p.m.
      • Puking smilies
        KenB -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 3:39 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Coolrey -- Friday, 27 March 2009, at 5:38 p.m.