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BGonline.org Forums
Some simple math
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: Rollout (Stick)
Date: Friday, 27 March 2009, at 2:53 p.m.
If you just win 2 pts you lead 6-0/10 for 82%..so the opp wins 18%.
I think we can see that White does have chances to win this game and that 25% is a reasonable estimate of his winning chances. So if White takes and recubes next roll NO MATTER WHAT when he wins he's up 4-0/6 for 80% ME. 25% x 80% = 20% so we can see that White has a clear take here even if he adopts the obviously imperfect auto recube to 8 plan.
Once you factor in the fact that your 4 cube nearly kills all G benefits, kills BG benefits, enables White to play with little fear of G, enables White to recube when he wants, and that you may possibly be G'd on the 8 cube, it becomes super clear to not recube here.
In reality all you need to do is get to 18% when he passes and 20% when he takes and recubes and you can be most certain of a large BK meal if you recube here. If fact if it was 18 vs 18 you likely don't have a recube here unless there's a good chance to get a pass from your opp. IMHO in the given position, there's too much play for White to expect a W/C opp to drop it.
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