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Positions Less Experienced Players Can Learn From

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 27 March 2009, at 7:44 p.m.

In Response To: Positions Less Experienced Players Can Learn From (Bill Riles)

I have also occasionally stolen points from positions like this, although if I was box in a chouette I wouldn't double.

OK, why this is probably a money beaver:

You have 5s and 1s (22 shots) at 2 blots. You can miss with a couple good rolls, 66 and 44 (2 rolls). That leaves 12 rolls where you are doubled out (you can't take because you are too far behind in the race and don't hit enough shots to justify taking, let alone winning after you hit).

12 winners is almost always a take. Usually 8 winners is enough to take, White would have to get gammoned 8 times in the other 24 games--a gammon percentage of 33%. That'd be close to what it is if you close out both blots, he's not even on the bar yet and your 6 point isn't made. So clearly this position isn't as good as having both blots closed out. So the first question, is it a take, is pretty much answered.

In addition to the 12 winners, what's going on in the other variations? Boxes leave you ahead in the race, fours leave you behind. You will probably lift the blot if you hit, but not if you hit with 32, 61, 65. The double hitters 41 and 51 are very good rolls for you, but they don't lift. So basically White has an immediate 6 shot to get back into the game on 10 rolls. On the other 12 rolls where you hit and lift you are still shooting at a second blot, which may be a pass if White dances, but White can roll a 6 from the roof and it's not clear who's a favorite. Or he can roll a 6 + hit from the roof and you are in the position White was just in, except you're on the bar and doubled out if you don't roll a 6 (and White likely has a strong double if you do roll a 6 since he's ahead in the race).

Add it all up and you are probably a slight favorite here if you leave the cube in the center but probably <55% cubeless, so I'd beaver. The race is paramount in these positions, because, well, you can't take if you miss.

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