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BGonline.org Forums
Some simple math
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: Some simple math (Bob Koca)
Date: Saturday, 28 March 2009, at 3:45 p.m.
I realized when I read what MCG wrote that you had said 7.5%. Sorry to misquote you, Bob... At the time I could not remember if it was 7.7 or 7.5 you had said. That was very good.
What wasn't so good was my match equity math... I came up with 22.5% take point and it was more like 13% on Stick's cube.
If I pass I have 18%, (OTB I assumed 20%), If I take and lose I have 7.5 as you CORRECTLY figured out in bed... in the dark... [the other bed, you guys]... that was pretty impressive.
Where I fucked up OTB was figuring my take point because I figured my GAIN out wrongly. I assumed my gain was from 50% at 5-5/11, to 85% at 9-5/11, and there are two problems with that reasoning. First off that MET # is onlly 80%, and secondly... My GAIN is compared to my match equity if I PASS the double, not to what it is if I take and win!!! What an idiot I am.
My actual GAIN was therefore... from 18% to 80%, or 62%.
So instead my rough calculations should have given me a fraction of 10/72 for my take point....
Instead of 10/45, which is what I used to get around 22.5% or something.
It was more like 14%, and that is why Stick's redouble is so BAD in the position, cuz I have 25% in the position. When he stops tossing around those blunders with a lead he will finally win a tournament.
This post was good for it alerted me to another brain fart I had during that match... I considered PASSING this blundersaurusREX.
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