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BGonline.org Forums
Vegas Super Jackpot Entry Round
Posted By: happyjuggler0 In Response To: Vegas Super Jackpot Entry Round (Stick)
Date: Saturday, 28 March 2009, at 6:25 p.m.
If I'm reading you right, this looks like that the round of 32 is in effect a one round qualifying tourney, and you can't buy in to the main tourney (i.e. round of 16) if you lose your qualifying match. I'm assuming here also that they aren't taking a rake from the "qualifying tourney", although I guess it doesn't matter too much for my math either way.
If I'm wrong about the above, disregard the rest of my post, cause it is then surely irrelevant.
For starters I'll take your qualified statement to mean that you think you are positive equity for the tourney, even after the rake, even if that is not what you really meant.
I'll also assume that time is not an issue, that showing up for the round of 32 earlier doesn't cost you anything, either cause you'd already be in Vegas or cause your travel expenses work out the same. This also assumes you'd not be engaged in either plus or negative equity activities while waiting for the round of 16.
Assume that in any given match your win/loss ratio is exactly 60/40. Assume you never hedge due to your great edge, and cause your opp likely won't give you 60/40 hedging odds (or better).
For the final 16, let's calculate your equity. (I'm doing it on paper like a doofus, sue me if I get it wrong). Entering the final match, you get at least $9100, and so you are really playing for $12,200. 60% of 12,200 is $7,300, so your equity going into the final 2 is $19,520.
Your equity going into the final 4 is 60% of that $19,520. That works out to 11,712.
Your equity going into the final 8 is 60% of 11712. Or $7,027.20
Your equity going into the final 16 is 60% of $7,027.20. Or $4216.32
Assume you enter the round of 32 instead of getting a bye straight into the round of 16. Your equity is $2529.792
By skipping the round of 32, your equity increases from $2529.792 to $4216.32, assuming a smooth 60% edge in each match. This would seem to make buying the bye a slam dunk proposition for anyone who considers he has an edge over the field. By the same logic, if you are weaker than the field, then you lose less equity by playing in the round of 32. Unless I am missing something of course!!!
Thanks for posting this Stick. I had always thought that it made more sense to not pay for a bye if you thought you had an edge on the field, but I guess I learned something just now.
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