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Semis vs. Steve Sax

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 8:10 p.m.

In Response To: Semis vs. Steve Sax (adambulldog)

The race is very close here, with Steve a little ahead. If he pays off later you will probably either run away or cover the ace point. So it looks like paying later leaves his chances at slightly under 50%.

Can he do better by running now? The shots will be more decisive if you roll 61, 62, 63 and he hits. 4s aren't duped but only one extra hit and cover, 22. 15 times he will be hit and be a fair sized underdog. 21 times he will be a fair sized favorite. Is that enough to make up for the times he gets hit?

I don't know, I tried doing something like this against Jeremy and GNU gave me an error for it, so I probably wouldn't do it here, but QF is pointing towards 16/8.

Messages In This Thread

• Semis vs. Steve Sax
  adambulldog -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 6:41 p.m.
  • Semis vs. Steve Sax
    Bill Riles -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 6:49 p.m.
    • Semis vs. Steve Sax
      Stick -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 9:54 p.m.
      • Semis vs. Steve Sax
        Bill Riles -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 10:06 p.m.
        • Semis vs. Steve Sax
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 10:09 p.m.
      • Semis vs. Steve Sax
        David Rockwell -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 12:26 a.m.
  • Semis vs. Steve Sax
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 7:00 p.m.
  • Semis vs. Steve Sax
    Keene -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 7:15 p.m.
    • Semis vs. Steve Sax
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 7:44 p.m.
      • Semis vs. Steve Sax
        Keene -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 3:38 a.m.
  • Semis vs. Steve Sax
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 8:10 p.m.
  • Semis vs. Steve Sax
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 1:26 a.m.
    • Semis vs. Steve Sax
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 1:53 a.m.
      • Semis vs. Steve Sax
        Coolrey -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 11:14 p.m.
        • Semis vs. Steve Sax
          Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 1:05 a.m.
          • Semis vs. Steve Sax
            adambulldog -- Wednesday, 1 April 2009, at 2:47 a.m.
    • Semis vs. Steve Sax
      Stick -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:01 a.m.
    • Semis vs. Steve Sax
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:05 a.m.
    • Semis vs. Steve Sax
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:35 a.m.
      • Semis vs. Steve Sax
        David Rockwell -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:49 a.m.
        • Semis vs. Steve Sax
          Bill Riles -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:53 a.m.
          • Semis vs. Steve Sax
            David Rockwell -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 3:01 a.m.
      • Semis vs. Steve Sax
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 5:07 a.m.
    • Semis vs. Steve Sax
      David Rockwell -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:43 a.m.
  • Semis vs. Steve Sax
    adambulldog -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 3:13 a.m.
    • Semis vs. Steve Sax
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 3:19 a.m.
      • Semis vs. Steve Sax
        neilkaz -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 3:48 a.m.
        • Semis vs. Steve Sax
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 11:09 p.m.
    • Semis vs. Steve Sax
      Stick -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 3:23 a.m.
      • Semis vs. Steve Sax
        adambulldog -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 3:54 a.m.
        • Semis vs. Steve Sax
          Stick -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 3:58 a.m.
          • Semis vs. Steve Sax
            adambulldog -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:32 a.m.
        • Semis vs. Steve Sax
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:22 a.m.
          • Semis vs. Steve Sax
            Stick -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:50 a.m.
        • Semis vs. Steve Sax
          Coolrey -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 10:58 p.m.
  • Semis vs. Steve Sax
    neilkaz -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 3:37 a.m.
  • Semis vs. Steve Sax
    Coolrey -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 10:49 p.m.