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BGonline.org Forums
Online Cube Action?
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Online Cube Action? (adambulldog)
Date: Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:22 a.m.
51 52 21 11 66 (8 rolls close him out, game basically over)
The BAD:
61, 62, 63, 64, and 65 leave a direct shot. With this roll Adam should either hit loose on the ace point (61, 62, 65) or leave the blot on the midpoint. If he is hit back the opponent is usually still behind a 5 prime. If he misses he is in big trouble. I think his chance of losing after a hit would be less than his chance of winning after not hitting so he gets at most 1/3 of 10 games here. Let's call it almost 3.
The OK:
54, 53, 43, 42, 32 leave 4 indirects. If hit white is in great shape and is in crappy shape if missed. Calling all those hits winners and all the misses losers gives white (1/9) of 10 = 1 game here.
31 and 41 play safely and give a position that repeats with adam probably slightly worse. If we are thinking it is a clsoe pass/take decision then these would be a little more than 15%. I think about of .8 games here.
The other doubles switch and clear the midpoint while he is on the bar. Of those 5 games the opponent would be lucky to win 1. I will call it 0.5 here.
The great: 51 52 21 11 66 (8 rolls close him out, game basically over). Maybe 1/2 of a game here.
Adding it up gives almost 6 wins in 36 games. So the take/pass decision looks extremely close. Compared to a cash a gammon earns you an extra 15% whereas losing the game on 2 costs you 35%. The GP is less then normal for Adam and I can't see him winning at leat 30% gammons.
Double for sure. Very close call for take/drop. I will guess take.
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