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Rollout - OLM - Monday - Nov. 21st

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 22 November 2006, at 7:47 a.m.

In Response To: OLM - Monday - Nov. 21st (Stick)

I'll admit, I was ready to NEXT this sucker into another dimension and then I decided, just in case, I should look @ Snowie's 3 ply analysis of the position. I thought, well, play B, 13/9, 11/9 isn't bad, so .. it could be close? On 3 ply the 2nd best play was only behind by .018 so I had to post it and roll it out. Should have went with my instinct knowing everyone would get this right. The rollout confirms what everyone knew, inner board point is worth more than an outer board point, the unstacking is nice also, and the indirect shots aren't costly at all compared to the gain from making the 4 pt.


Match to 25, tied at 0
161
162
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/4 6/4 0.149
0.6% 15.4% 53.5% 46.5% 11.5% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.111 ±0.016. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 21947 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
2 R 13/9 11/9 0.061 (-0.088)
0.7% 13.4% 51.7% 48.3% 12.4% 0.6%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.044 ±0.016. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 23331 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.

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