BGonline.org Forums

A new variance reduciton technique

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 10:21 a.m.

In Response To: A new variance reduciton technique (Bob Koca)

I agree with MaX that your suggestion goes very much in the same direction as Dahl's VR.

I think that either method by itself would show a very large improvement over doing nothing fancy. Used in conjunction the extra one gives a small improvement over using just one by itself.

But Dahl's seems to be the more fancy one of the two, as it is not only using rankings, but quantifies equity. I expect the combined method to be much better than matched pairs, but not to be much better than Dahl's alone. (Has anyone ever tried to measure the effect of the matched pairs method currently implemented (i.e. based on same stream of dice)?)

Using the same dice stream is a better than nothing but somewhat feeble way to do this as the games could quickly diverge.

As a standalone method, I find it obvious that Koca matched pairs are more efficient than stream-of-dice matched pairs. In conjunction with Dahl VR, I'm far from sure. For Koca matched pairs to improve upon naked Dahl, wouldn't you have to assume that there is a correlation of misevaluation (where the imperfectness of Dahl comes from) and quality of rolls? It is possible that there is such a correlation, but a priori I do not find that hypothesis more convincing than that there is a correlation between misevaluation and number of pips (which stream-of-dice matched pairs would exploit). I expect the effect to be tiny in both cases, but am looking forward to be convinced otherwise.

Messages In This Thread

• A new variance reduciton technique
  Bob Koca -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 7:47 p.m.
  • A new variance reduciton technique
    David Rockwell -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:08 a.m.
    • A new variance reduciton technique
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:43 a.m.
    • A new variance reduciton technique
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:51 a.m.
  • A new variance reduciton technique
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:56 a.m.
    • A new variance reduciton technique
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 5:34 a.m.
      • A new variance reduciton technique
        Stick -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 5:38 a.m.
        • A new variance reduciton technique
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 5:42 a.m.
  • A new variance reduciton technique
    MaX -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:13 p.m.
    • A new variance reduciton technique
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:57 p.m.
      • A new variance reduciton technique
        Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 10:21 a.m.
      • A new variance reduciton technique
        MaX -- Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 11:15 a.m.
  • A new variance reduction technique
    Walter Trice -- Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 5:37 a.m.
  • I tried it
    Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 1 April 2009, at 1:18 a.m.
    • I tried it
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 2 April 2009, at 3:15 p.m.
      • I tried it
        Tom Keith -- Thursday, 2 April 2009, at 6:37 p.m.