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A new variance reduciton technique

Posted By: MaX
Date: Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 11:15 a.m.

In Response To: A new variance reduciton technique (Bob Koca)

"1. Instead of going for the same rank, you could (at negliectible cost) select the roll for play B that gives the closest luck to the one obtained for play A. Should be more efficent than just taking the roll with the same rank."

"Doesn't work as a roll is not randomly chosen. For example suppose that position A has the property that it is extremely unvolatile whereas position B has the property of having a few jokers with everything else slightly below average. Those jokers would never get used. "

True if you use your method alone, but if you use it on top of Var.Red. it shouldn't matter I think. As an alternative, you could normalize the luck between -1 and +1 (with respect to the worse/best roll) for play A and chose play B's roll with the closest normalized luck. Probably not a big deal anyway.

Overall I think that your method alone is at best as good as Dahl's one (but I would bet on Dahl's being superior), hence the question is: is the sum of the two better than Dahl's alone ?

Could be, but if it's the case, it will have to be proven with tests unless we are able to prove that your method "adds some extra correlation" Dahl's method does not already take into account (and it sounds pretty hard to do).

Thing is that Dahl's is wrong when evaluation is wrong. And if eval is wrong, ranking/luck is likely to be wrong too (since they are based on the same eval, to be fair in terms of required computation).

I wasn't even aware that "the seam dice stream" is used: I find it almost useless if Dahl's Var.Red. is on.

MaX.

Messages In This Thread

• A new variance reduciton technique
  Bob Koca -- Sunday, 29 March 2009, at 7:47 p.m.
  • A new variance reduciton technique
    David Rockwell -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:08 a.m.
    • A new variance reduciton technique
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:43 a.m.
    • A new variance reduciton technique
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:51 a.m.
  • A new variance reduciton technique
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 4:56 a.m.
    • A new variance reduciton technique
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 5:34 a.m.
      • A new variance reduciton technique
        Stick -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 5:38 a.m.
        • A new variance reduciton technique
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 5:42 a.m.
  • A new variance reduciton technique
    MaX -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:13 p.m.
    • A new variance reduciton technique
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 30 March 2009, at 2:57 p.m.
      • A new variance reduciton technique
        Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 10:21 a.m.
      • A new variance reduciton technique
        MaX -- Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 11:15 a.m.
  • A new variance reduction technique
    Walter Trice -- Tuesday, 31 March 2009, at 5:37 a.m.
  • I tried it
    Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 1 April 2009, at 1:18 a.m.
    • I tried it
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 2 April 2009, at 3:15 p.m.
      • I tried it
        Tom Keith -- Thursday, 2 April 2009, at 6:37 p.m.