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Always big cubes with Ray ?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 4 April 2009, at 2:05 p.m.

In Response To: Always big cubes with Ray ? (neilkaz)

Does Ray have a take ATS? His 8-cube takepoint is the normal 25% with minimal recube vig since Neil's 16-cube takepoint is around 10%. Plus Neil could win a gammon which raises Ray's takepoint a bit (the 8-cube gammon price is around 1/8 ATS). So Ray needs close to 25% cubeless chances to take. Does he have it? The answer is not at all clear to me and I don't think it's too good so I'd definitely send it over. If Ray has a take, it can't be by much.

Difficult to estimate Ray's exact winning chances but I vote for a close pass. Neil has several rolls to find a six and be close to gin if Ray fails to hit. When things go well for Ray, he's still not that big a favorite. If Neil repeatedly dances until Ray starts bearing off (or if he enters and gets hit again and then dances for a while), I think Ray's wastage on the ace makes him only around a 3/2 fav.

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