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Interesting Cube v. Ray

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Monday, 6 April 2009, at 6:51 p.m.

In Response To: Interesting Cube v. Ray (Stick)

Ray doesn't want to play at 4a2a and give away all of the leverage that score has to offer. So, his take point is very low in the absence of gammons. My MET has the take point at something like 17.5%. I believe this isn't too far from the G11 take point.

With seven off and a crunched board, Ray would win 39% or so assuming a smooth bearin. With everything on the 4,5 & 6, I don't have a clue. This looks like it may be 1.5 to 2 rolls worse than a crunched position. That would put Ray's chances somewhere in the general vacinity of 10 - 15%, not too good. Add to this the possibility that Stick cracks or bears in poorly while trying to conquer Ray's 3 prime and there may be just enough to take.

I think that Stick loses his market with a 5 or a 6, but probably not by much. Looks like a toss-up. I guess I would double now.

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