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BGonline.org Forums
Rollouts
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: Rollouts (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 10:13 a.m.
Interesting, even though the second position is not possible from the original. Getting out almost does lose your market, and it makes the double exceptionally efficient.
In the second example though, I am slightly confused as to why 155% of players have to pass it for it to be a double. At 100% passers, you collect your point v anyone. The bots are so strange sometimes.
As I mentioned if your spares get to the 6, 5 and 4 points, Snowie's evaluation was 15.5%. So, you can lose your market. Petko wondered what the equity was in THAT position, and I had to enter it to know... So you are right you can't expect anyone to KNOW this as a reference position... and maybe you can wait until you get your spares over there to double this position? YOU seemed to have a pretty good idea about the position, certainly better than mine. Since you are putting the match on the line in the semi final of the undefeated bracket when you desperately want to finally WIN your first ABT event and you figure to be a favorite in the next match.... It might do to take a little more time on these decisions in the future. I would imagine that doing that would not be such a bad plan, and then hope to get a take... Unless you expect your man to pass now, which I assume you didn't (?)
According to the bot, it looks like you made an error redoubling of .0564. You redoubled instantly over the board when you closed me out, so that must have been the plan in your mind in the first place. Let's analyze that for a minute:
It tells me that you are more willing to make a mistake now than you are to lose your market OR allow your opponent to make a mistake later. These numbers you arrived at with rollouts are very close after you get out, so that would be a VERY good time, (or at least a better one), to have me making this decision. Or when you got them to the 6,5 and 4 points. You didn't do that in this game, because your second shake was 44, so your spares were not perfectly placed.
Last tournament you posted your .3xx redouble and said "SFW?". 32% of the folks have to pass this to make it right, according to Gnu. Last time you mentioned you probably should not have doubled ME, because I am a taker. This week, you doubled ME... again! Hmmm.
I think as soon as you stop tossing these kind of cubes at people, and start waiting to allow them to make a mistake later, by taking after you lost your market, or when there is less doubt about the conclusion, you will stop having merely good results, and begin to have SPECTACULAR ones. Congratulations on some more good results, even though you stole this match from me to achieve them.
Thank you for posting this position, I think it can be very instructive to all.
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