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BGonline.org Forums
Rollouts
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: Rollouts (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 4:35 p.m.
Stick: The mistake you can make right now by passing is over 1% MWC, if I wait til both men are out it's not even 1/5th of a % if you take. I'm cubing now through and through in an unknown position.
Ray: I often wonder why I ever say anything... Nobody gets it.
Nevertheless:
You double only unknown quantities in this position, not established pros. Then your bluff works a higher percentage of the time. These kind of doubles are the reason you have never won. You won this match, but you lose when you get 33,44, 34 followed by another bad number. Lets say your back checkers don't move 25% of the time, they don't move 1/64 in 3 rolls. That is nearly 2%. Given that you can roll an ace and still be stuck back there it IS 2%. 5.6% you toss 33 or 44 specifically.
If I am not the biggest taker in the ABT, I will do until they find him. With 7 checkers off, a take point @ 17.5% in the MET (INCLUDING GAMMONS I presume, which are not possible here)... You were fantasizing if you ever thought I would pass this. Whacko, crazy, nuttier than a fruitcake, get the straight jacket for this guy he is half a bubble off.
You rolled 41 or something and then 44, and it didn't overrun the position, but it forced you to place your checkers in certain spots. Another roll like 31, or any of the 9 numbers that fail to move your other back guy would have compromised them even further.
You trap a taker by getting him to take a pass. You trap a passer by letting him pass a take. You trap a beaver by baiting your rat trap with a yummy looking tree. You trap a rabbit by hiding in the bushes and making noises that sound like a carrot.
You don't bag a taker with an early cube. You allow yourself to commit suicide.
You don't win tournaments with lightning fast plays, either.
Ever see the movie The Quick and the Dead? In duels, quick is good. In backgammon fast is BAD. The watchers might have been impressed, but there was nobody holding a gun to your head.
When I realized that nobody was going to shoot me if I didn't double the instant I missed a double, I was okay with missing one once in awhile.
When I realized that the worst possible mistake with the cube is to double EARLY, and I can't play like a bot, then I realized the BEST play is OFTEN to MISS a double sometimes, if you are human.
You are less human than most of us, Stick, and everyone recognizes your expertise. You are searching for reasons why you haven't won... and making comments like "there is another player I outplayed, who just won the tournament". All of THEM, would have MISSED this double.
All of them would have gotten me to take a pass. All of them have a trophy now. I think I have two.
When you knock this shit off, you will not only win an ABT event, you will win the ABT.
This is my last free lesson for you.
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