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BGonline.org Forums
framework
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: framework (David Rockwell)
Date: Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 5:45 p.m.
While David's approach here is well thought out... I would like to make some generalizations about this situation as it pertains to ABT or local tournament doubling.
Let me state for the record that anyone who listens to what Neil says about this would be getting a better opinion, as he is more detail conscious than I am. What I do is try hard to learn what is best in MOST situations and then do that, I am not capable of being so accurate or determining with great accuracy the correct decision from roll to roll. However, my approach seems to work sometimes :-).
Usually it is right to ROLL.
Your double can either be right, too early or too good. That is two reasons out of three not to double. If you are not sure, neither is your opponent. If you don't double now, you will still have access to the cube next turn and that is a tangible asset.
As for the too good decision, there is a BIG reward with relatively little risk. Neil gives more 4 cubes than I do, in general. He is better than I am. But I punish people with their own doubles, and reward myself with enough gammons that I have had some good results over the years. The gammon threat doesn't have to loom large, it just has to be there.
You might not be too good this turn but you are more likely to be too good next turn than you are to have become not good enough to double in the interim.
Your position may deteriorate and you may double next time, and a relieved opponent who is now good enough to TAKE, may PASS anyway and thank you for doubling him out. Stress works wonders, and people in a bad way hate to see you trying to gammon them on their own cube. It is the backgammon equivalent of a nightmare.
When it doubt, wait. Probably too simple of a concept for this group of players, but it works!
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