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Rollouts

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 7:46 p.m.

In Response To: Rollouts (Coolrey)

Q: Is losing your market definitely a bad thing?

Well, losing your market is by definition a bad thing, but in this case you would rather roll a market loser than double early if you were certain your opponent would take.

There is a lot of risk involved when you put the match winning point on the line for your opponent. Playing a taker, what kind of mistake is he more likely to make? Taking a pass, or passing this take?

I don't think it's easy to say here. As Stick points out this is a pretty unusual position so whether someone is a "taker" or a "passer" they may just misestimate their GWC. Borderline take/drop for money.

If the double is early for a bot, is the size of the error more or less for the human who has to play it out... even if it looks like a simple position to play?

The size of the error is probably larger for the human, but not by much. You can also have checker play decisions after you come in and aren't home yet as to what points to slot but my guess is two people play this relatively skill-less position almost as well as a bot (noting there are no recubes here).

Of course, if Stick knew you were going to take later, the proper thing to do would of course been to roll and take a freeroll to get to a better position. But if you were passing now and he didn't cash and rolled 44, that becomes a pretty big error. According to the RO you need 12% passes to make this a break-even double, and I'd definitely imagine that far more than 12% of the field would pass this cube. Would Ray pass this 12% of the time? Who knows...it's not easy to say, plus if you don't know the RO result and the exact %age you need, it becomes even trickier. It might be a correct cube right now because of the market loss when Stick escapes a checker, you don't have GNU sitting with you at the board.

I would have cubed this OTB. Given the result, I wouldn't cube, but that's the beauty of hindsight.

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