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BGonline.org Forums
Rollouts
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: Rollouts (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 8:56 p.m.
Mattt: Well, losing your market is by definition a bad thing, but in this case you would rather roll a market loser than double early if you were certain your opponent would take it.
Ray: Thank you for making my point.
Matt: I don't think it's easy to say here. As Stick points out this is a pretty unusual position so whether someone is a "taker" or a "passer" they may just misestimate their GWC. Borderline take/drop for money
Ray: They MAY misestimate their GWC, and given their history a taker is likely to err high. So you can predict with some certainty that the taker is going to TAKE. Several people in this forum have correctly identified my take point as 17.5 % from the MET. I estimated it at 18-20%, which is 5 to 8 % below what is a normal take.
What is abnormal about this position? Almost half of my checkers are borne off. NO GAMMONS are possible and the most precious point in any match is my reward for taking. My spares are high up in my board, but to borrow a phrase from Stick: Do I care??? Show this position to everyone who reads here and ask them what they thought I would do with this double? Stick knew it was an easy take, he knew I was a taker, he had to know I was not afraid of this position. It was a miscalculation to double me or David Rockwell here. Let him double Phil Simborg or someone capable of talking himself into a pass. Larry Liebster? He will take later, so it is a bigger blunder to double him.
I REPEAT: You get to pick your pigeons in backgammon, so choose your battles wisely. Stick had zero bluff equity here, I was looking for an excuse to take a double that put the match on the line.
Matt: But if you were passing now and he didn't cash and rolled 44, that becomes a pretty big error
Ray: A pretty big error yes, but not AS big of an error. Doubling just cost you the MATCH, if you double NOW and then roll the 44, IF, as he suspected, I took this obvious bluff! Besides when am I going to pass and disappoint 20 watchers riveted to this game?
The other thing about early doubles, the WORST mistake you can make with a cube decision, is that he could become a prohibitive favorite and then lose when I toss 66, 66, 55... He will feel unlucky, but he won't have been... Because he didn't deserve to achieve his prohibitive favorite status because his double was early. No matter who you are, your error in doubling this is higher that the bot states, no matter what rollout settings you use. First rollout required 32% to double, next it was 11.x%, Do another one it might get down lower... But they ALL have one thing in common: They are EARLY, and they put the match on the line, not just another point.
Matt: Who knows...it's not easy to say, plus if you don't know the RO result and the exact %age you need, it becomes even trickier. It might be a correct cube right now because of the market loss when Stick escapes a checker, you don't have GNU sitting with you at the board.
Ray: Right on! But you know what? This sword has two edges, and he didn't have Gnu sitting there either. I submit that it is better to WAIT under those circumstances, and the RO supports MY assertion. He knew it was a take and he doubled anyway. He knew I was a taker, and he doubled anyway. Why not just say you wanted to double, whether it was right or not, instead of trying to justify it by saying: Well, he might pass it NOW. Did I get to # 2 all time on the ABT passing these cubes, ya think?
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