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DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 3:09 a.m.

In Response To: DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush? (Stick)

I also pass on hitting. If you're successful in closing out 1 checker, you're about 97% to win. If you close out 2 in this position, you're probably around 99%. So you gain 2% when the hit works. OTOH hitting gives the oppt good chances at getting a crashed ace or deucept game which definitely wins more than one man closed out. How much more? Not at all sure but I would guess you're only around 92% when the oppt anchors. So hitting risks approx 5 to gain 2. I don't think you can close out the 2 checkers 5/7 of the time, so passing on the hit looks right.

Messages In This Thread

• DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
  neilkaz -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 1:22 a.m.
  • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
    Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 1:25 a.m.
    • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
      Stick -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 1:43 a.m.
      • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
        John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 3:09 a.m.
    • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
      sal pittelli -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:00 p.m.
      • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
        sal pittelli -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:04 p.m.
      • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
        Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:04 p.m.
  • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 10:37 a.m.
  • Some Reference Positions for your bird or bush
    Stick -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 10:45 a.m.
  • Rollout OTB etc
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 7:14 p.m.